For more than 100 years, diamonds have made Namibia shine. They built schools, tarred roads, paid civil servants, and put Namibia on the world map as one of Africa’s most stable, diamond-rich nations. From the beaches of Oranjemund to the seabed off Lüderitz, diamonds funded our independence, our institutions, and our early dreams of becoming a middle-income country.

Today, that shine is fading.

Diamond production is declining. Grades are lower, costs are higher, and global demand is shifting as lab-grown diamonds eat into the market. The companies that once employed thousands are scaling back. Towns that relied on diamond revenue are bracing for a harder future.

And the hard question Namibians must now ask is this: what did we do with the diamond wealth while we had it, and are we about to repeat the same mistake with uranium, gold, lithium, and other rare earth minerals? This is not just about geology. This is about the resource curse, the trap in which a country rich in natural resources ends up poor in development, jobs, and options when the boom ends.

The diamond era

Let’s be honest about the gains. Diamond revenue brought Namibia macro-stability, funded healthcare, education, infrastructure, and supported Debmarine and Namdeb, key partnerships. Many neighbours still envy these benefits from corporate taxes and royalties.

Diamonds teach that extraction isn’t development.

Namibia exported most value as rough stones, with cutting and jewellery jobs going abroad, creating a skill gap and limited foreign investment. When prices fell or mines aged, communities suffered due to lack of diverse industry.

We celebrated revenue but delayed beneficiation, innovation, and saving for the post-diamond era. The Sovereign Wealth Fund came late, and vocational mining training lagged. When diamond prices declined, we realised we lacked a diverse set of engines to sustain the economy. This warns us that a resource’s value depends on how we use its earnings.

The curse knocking again 

Now the world is returning to Namibia for different rocks: uranium for nuclear energy, lithium, copper, cobalt, and rare earths for batteries and EVs, and gold for security. The geology remains the same; global demand has increased.

Government and investors see this as the “next boom” due to strong prices, active exploration, and real potential for jobs and foreign exchange.

However, if we export raw minerals now, like with diamonds in early years, spending now and planning later, we’ll face a brief boom, long bust, and communities asking, “where did the money go?” The resource curse isn’t about resources, but about failing to turn them into lasting capacity like factories, skills, and industries.

Look at countries exporting crude oil without refineries, copper being mined but wires imported, cobalt mined without battery plants.

When resources decline, they have just holes and debts. Namibia can’t afford this.

What leadership must do differently now

The lesson from ailing diamonds is not to mourn. It is to move, and to move differently. Here are four non-negotiable moves for leadership to focus on and implement:

Mandate beneficiation, not just extraction – We must legislate and incentivise local value addition.

For lithium, battery precursors and components.

For uranium, nuclear fuel services and waste management partnerships. For gold and copper, fabrication.

Offer tax breaks to companies that build plants here, not just pits.

Every export permit for raw materials should come with a beneficiation plan.

Ring-fence revenue for the future – Direct more funding to the existing mineral wealth fund “now”, not after the boom peaks.

A portion of every royalty and tax from new minerals must go into savings, infrastructure, and human capital.

The diamond years taught us that current spending feels good, but future generations pay the price.

Build people, not just mines – Namibia’s biggest resource is its people. Leaders should guide institutions to create courses aligned with local resources.

Experts must be developed locally in TVET colleges and universities.

Relying on imports for new skills will lead to profits leaving the country. Procurement rules should favour Namibian companies for services, maintenance, and supplies, ensuring local spending that boosts livelihoods and funds for our institutions.

Plan for the post-mine town – Oranjemund’s transition shows it can be done. Every new mining project should have a 20-year closure and diversification plan from day one.

Tourism, agriculture, renewable energy, and manufacturing must be seeded in mining regions, so they don’t collapse when the ore runs out.

The diamond is a mirror

The declining diamond isn’t a tragedy but a mirror of our reliance on a single raw export. It gave us time, money, and opportunity, which we misused. We won’t get a second chance with lithium, gold, uranium, and other minerals.

The green energy shift won’t wait for policy fixes.

Investors will leave, prices fall, and future headlines will warn us unless we act. Leadership must decide whether to simply dig and ship or to build and endure.

The diamond’s lesson should guide us to invest wisely and profit from other minerals now, before the boom is over.

*Natanael Nghivafe is a Namibian. The views expressed in this article are entirely his.