Namibia is heading into a potentially hotter and drier rainy season, raising fresh concerns for farmers who are already struggling with serious water shortages in parts of the north.

The Namibia Meteorological Service has warned that the country could experience below-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures during the 2026/27 rainfall season as El Niño continues to strengthen.

For farmers, the warning comes at a difficult time, with many already facing dried-up ponds and earth dams after prolonged dry conditions.

In the north, where livestock and crop farming depend heavily on seasonal rainfall and local water sources, the lack of water is becoming an immediate concern rather than a problem expected only in the months ahead.

In Ohangwena, farmer Likius Kashana said he and people in his village are surviving on the last remaining muddy water in nearby earth dams, while the cost of using tap water has made it difficult for many farmers to provide water for their livestock.

“We are now surviving on the last muddy water in earth dams around the surrounding villages. Most people cannot afford to water their cattle from the taps because it is too expensive,” Kashana said.

The lack of water has left farmers uncertain about how they will sustain their livestock if the coming rainy season fails to bring sufficient rainfall.

Kashana, who is unemployed, said he is particularly concerned about how he and other community members will survive if the drought worsens.

“We are scared of the drought that is coming because we do not know how we are going to survive,” he said.

His concerns come as many farming communities are already dealing with depleted water sources and deteriorating grazing conditions.

The situation is also being felt in the Oshana region, where farmer Almas Kasheela said the availability of water has become a growing concern for farmers and their livestock.

Kasheela, who is unemployed, said he is particularly concerned about how he and other community members will survive if the drought worsens.

“We are scared of the drought that is coming because we do not know how we are going to survive,” he said.,” Kasheela said.

A poor rainy season could also affect crop production and food security, particularly among farmers who have limited alternatives to natural water sources.

Simon Dirkse, Chief of Climate and Data Bank at the Namibia Meteorological Service, said in a statement issued on 3 September that Namibia could experience below-normal rainfall and above-average temperatures as El Niño strengthens.

El Niño is a climate phenomenon caused by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Although it develops thousands of kilometres from Namibia, it can influence atmospheric circulation and weather patterns across southern Africa.

“Historical data and internal studies confirm that El Niño events consistently suppress rainfall across Namibia, while La Niña events enhance it,” Dirkse said.

The Meteorological Service’s seasonal outlook for October 2026 to March 2027 points to a strong likelihood of below-average rainfall and above-average temperatures across the country.

For Namibia’s farming communities, the combination of heat and limited rainfall could put further pressure on already depleted water sources, grazing areas and livestock.

Dirkse said international climate prediction centres expect the current El Niño event to strengthen and potentially reach strong to very strong intensity towards the end of 2026, with the phenomenon expected to persist into early 2027.

The Meteorological Service said the early forecast should allow farmers, policymakers and other stakeholders to prepare for possible climate-related challenges.

The service will continue monitoring the developing El Niño conditions and provide updated seasonal information as more data becomes available.